The social structure of china’s elite under modernisation: institutionalised circulation, multidimensional tension and developmental trajectories

Abstract

The present study conceptualises institutionalised elite circulation and multidimensional structural tension as mutually complementary endogenous parameters of macro-social dynamics. Employing a dynamic-systemic framework that fuses structural equation modelling with longitudinal network analysis, the authors reconstruct the coevolutionary continuum of the economic, politico-cultural, and administrative sub-systems of the People’s Republic of China over the period 1978–2025. It is established that elite rotation, progressing through the cycle “risk accumulation – negotiated adaptation – systemic re-balancing”, dissipates tension and initiates non-linear transformations. Sub-samples from the Chinese Social Survey and official statistical series indicate that: 1) institutionalised elite circulation endogenously lowers the level of structural tension; 2) a dual mode of concerted governance statistically reduces the probability of macrosystemic instability during peak-tension intervals; and 3) the dynamic–systemic model surpasses linear counterparts in accounting for path dependence and detecting critical switches. Consequently, the institutionalist comprehension of elite studies is deepened, and empirically grounded benchmarks of macro-regulation are articulated for Global South states operatin g under the conditions of a “risk society”.